Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Long term predictions - both weather and political

I have quite a few thoughts on the upcoming storm season. We are in a La Nina cycle right now, which can explain the early season, East of the norm, tornado outbreaks we've seen so far (all things that normally occur during La Nina). For the early season, it should be dryer and warmer than normal. I don't like the farther East than normal factor, I hate chasing in the forrest covered hill/mountain areas. The scary part is there could be more outbreaks, but not likely. Farther into the normal chase season for us, April - June, the El Nina conditions are forecasted to lighten up, which could improve our Oklahoma chase season, but will still be rather dry, meaning I think we'll see more chase days bust do to the cap holding. This could be good in some aspects, as the way things do go, we should see more discreet cells with fewer of those "gunk" days where it's hard to determine where to go just by looking out the window. I'm a little up in the air about a mid-May, early June outbreak, but if we do have one in the southern-central plains, my guess is that will be the timeframe (the more I think about it, the earlier I want to shift that timeline).
Now on to the political predictions. Several weeks before the super Tuesday elections, I decided to go for Obama. Not because he's going to win, which he will, but because I haven't really liked the retoric and tone I've been hearing from the Clinton camp. I really like the new/fresh perspective Obama comes across with, and the more I listen to his debates, speeches, etc, the more I really think he is a logical and intelligent leader, something we've been without for quite some time. It's good to see the tide turning, and we will likely see a McCain / Obama matchup for November. McCain's chances then will depend largely on who he picks for a runningmate. If he does pick Huckabee and can draw in a large portion of the conservative religous right (he will have to change his tone on many issues, which I suspect he will once he has his party's nomination secured), he will have a fighting chance come the big race.

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